Thursday Night Football: Dallas @ Seattle, Best Picks & Props!
Dallas Cowboys -9, Over/Under 47.5 - 8:15pm on Amazon Prime
Odds & Stats provided by Draftkings Sportsbook & ESPN
The Cowboys roll into Seattle Thursday night on a three game win streak and a 30 point per game average margin of victory while the Seahawks have lost two of their last three. Right now if the season were to end, both teams would be getting into the playoffs, Dallas as the 5th seed and Seattle as the 6th, so with a tight wild card race this will be a crucial matchup. Both teams played on Thanksgiving so no issues with short rest here, we can expect a potentially different TNF game, meaning POINTS?! Let’s get to the good stuff - props & picks for the people!
Dallas Cowboys -9 (-110): As mentioned previously, Dallas has bullied opponents their last three games, and I expect that to continue on Thursday. Kenneth Walker III is not expected to play much if at all, and Charbonnet won’t be able to sustain the run game on his own which will force Geno Smith to make plays with his arm, something he hasn’t done well this year while Walker has been out. Seattle has lost all three games that Walker has either missed entirely or significant time including Thursday’s blowout to the Niners 31-13, 17-16 loss to the Rams, and 37-3 loss to the Ravens. In those three games, Geno has QBR ratings of 14.9, 64.5, and 13.9 - not good for Seattle, but great for Dallas cover.
Ceedee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (-135): Lamb has had a minimum of 9 targets in each of his last five games and an average of 12.4 targets over those games - the guy’s been open. Seattle has a stout secondary highlighted by rookie Devon Witherspoon & second-year player Tarik Woolen, who will be bringing their A-game, which is why I think it’s sitting at the 6.5 mark on Draftkings is tempting right where it is, Ceedee will want to prove that he’s the best receiver in football and this will be a great opportunity for him to showcase that. I can see Lamb getting 3-4 catches within the first two drives, Dak will want to feed him early on. Yards at 84.5 is scary so give me the receptions.
Tony Pollard Over 87.5 rush + rec yards (-115): This one scares me a little bit if this game gets out of hand early, but if he’s able to get 15-20 meaningful touches I think he can go over this number. Seattle is giving up 117.7 rushing yards per game and as good as counterpart Rico Dowdle has been, Pollard will get the bulk of the looks in this game with Dallas eyeing home field advantage down the road.
Bonus prop - Brandon Aubrey Over 1.5 FGs made (-130): Aubrey has been CASH - making 22/22 FGs to start the season. Aubrey has an average of two looks per game, so he should be able to get the chances to hit this over. Seattle’s defense can stall out Dak and the Cowboys in the red zone once or twice to help this over.
