NBA FINALS PREVIEW
This year’s NBA Finals matchup is between a #1 seed and a #8 seed….. Yes you read that right, we’re not talking first round of the playoffs we’re talking finals baby! #1 seed comes from the West in the Denver Nuggets and the #8 seed is the Miami Heat and if you’ve watched any of Miami this postseason, you know better than to start doubting them now. Denver was consistently the best team in the West all season posting a 34-7 record at home behind a near MVP season for Nikola Jokic once again while Miami had a bit of a different path to the playoffs - sneaking by the Bulls & Hawks for the Play-In tournament to earn the #8 seed and haven’t looked back since. Jimmy Butler AKA Himmy Butler has been on an tear this postseason, averaging 28.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 5.7 APG with a 56 point game against #1 seed Milwaukee in the first round. Now to get to the opening odds and opportunities to make some solid future bets!
Opening Odds (via DraftKings): Nuggets -400, Miami +310, O/U 5.5 Total Games - Over -140, Under +115
Denver opened the season as +1700 to win the NBA finals while Miami was +2400
Series Spread: Best Bet - Nuggets -1.5 games series spread -160 on DraftKings
Denver is 34-7 at home and has yet to drop a game at Ball Arena this postseason with home court advantage in their back pocket. I don’t think this game goes seven and so this will be as good as it gets if Denver wins game one. I think Miami has been incredible all playoffs but Denver has been another level with Jokic averaging a triple double with Murray 27.7 PPG it will be tough to slow them down plus you’ve got Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon playing great ball as of late. If you want a good fade Sam option, Miami +2.5 games in the series spread is -150 so if it goes to game six you’re golden, I like my chances of Denver 4-1 more than Game 7 so that’s where I stand.
Exact Series: Denver wins 4-2 +400 on DraftKings
Won’t get into too much here but I see Miami getting two here probably one at Denver and one at home but I don’t see this going to G7 and I don’t see Nuggets blowing Miami out. Best odds if you’re going Denver exact and after watching Miami this postseason, they’re not going down without a fight.
Fun Prop: Jokic to average a triple double throughout the NBA Finals -125 on DraftKings
Fun? Absolutely. Likely? Even more so. Jokic is already averaging a triple double so far this postseason at a clip of 30/13/10 so it’s hard to see this trend go downward in a first time Finals appearance from a two time MVP. He will be the focal point of the offense and you can still expect him to get his against a tough defender in Bam Adebayo. As I tend to say when it comes to big lights - the big boys always come to play.
Another Fun Prop: Jokic to hit 40+ points in one game in the Finals +145
(Read last prop - we’re asking for 10 points above average for ONE game)
One More - No Promises this is the last: Jimmy Butler to have the highest scoring performance in the Finals +170
Yes, I know the last prop somewhat contradicts this but there’s a world where Jimmy Butler drops 50 and they can still lose to the Nuggets behind a complete Jokic-Murray-MPJ-Gordon performance only to be outscored by Himmy. Worth a sprinkle when he’s put up a 56 point and 42 point game already this postseason.
Game 1 Prediction: Miami @ Denver(-8.5), O/U 219
Hard not to go with Denver at home and game one but I am a firm believer in the team who’s played most recently or played in a game seven versus the team with rest should be able to keep it close. A win isn’t what I predict but we’re talking about the NBA Finals here and Miami +8.5 is too good to pass up. Leaning under 219 in the first game as both teams try and feel each other out. A Jokic triple double prop +100 is always a good move as well!
